Ranking the Quarterfinalists: U.S. Open 2020
by @ratloff
The U.S. Open quarterfinals are here. Who’s left? Who’s going to win this thing? Who’s definitely not going to win? Here are the definitive power rankings of the last eight standing in both the men’s and women’s draws. If any of this turns out to be wrong, even just a little, I will punish myself!
Ranking the Quarterfinalists -- Men’s Draw
8. Alex de Minaur (21)
7. Andrey Rublev (10)
The Speed Demon (de Minaur) has pluck, but the quarterfinals will be the end of the 21-year-old Aussie’s best grand slam campaign to date. He is 0-2 against Dominic Thiem, his Wednesday opponent, and Thiem is the wrong guy to challenge to a hitting-groundstrokes-and-running-around-forever competition.
Ditto for the 22-year-old Rublev, who played fellow Russian Daniil Medvedev (his QF opponent) twice in 2019 and never won a set. Thanks for being here, fellas. Good luck in Paris. You were both barely even born in the 20th century.
6. Pablo Carreno Busta (20)
Pure gut here, as Carreno Busta should be fresh after playing less than a full set in the fourth round and he owns a favorable record against Denis Shapovalov, his QF opponent (3-1 in four meetings). But no one likes being the Other Guy in the big controversy everyone’s talking about, and winning by default is hardly a confidence booster. Meanwhile, Shapo is vibrating on a whole other level. I’m out.
5. Alexander Zverev (5)
4. Borna Coric (27)
These two play each other in the quarters, and I’m terrified for Zverev. Coric saved six match points in a five-set win over four-seeded Tsitsipas in the match of the tournament so far. The Croatian (former) wunderkind is healthy, playing some of his best tennis since his arrival as a teenager, and he has that new perspective on life that only a near-elimination experience can provide. Zverev has looked fantastic so far, but this is going to be a tight one, and the German’s second-serve yips could surface at any time. No thank you!
3. Denis Shapovalov (12)
David Goffin is the experienced, steady, all-court technician that you’d expect to outlast Shapovalov’s maximalistically offensive game, especially in a five-set match. All Shapovalov did in their fourth-round meeting was hit Goffin off the court (after dropping the first set in a tiebreak, 0-7). He enters the QF with all the momentum in the world against a player in Carreno Busta who is not unlike Goffin. Shapovalov is resilient, he’s in breathtaking form, and he’s on the right side of the draw to become the first Canadian man to win a grand slam title -- one year after Bianca Andreescu became the first-ever Canadian to win a slam at last year’s U.S. Open. It would be a fitting end to a men’s draw that was crawling with young Canadian talent. This is the best and most entertaining outcome. We want it, oh how we want it.
2. Dominic Thiem (2)
1. Daniil Medvedev (3)
The oddsmakers are right -- Medvedev is winning this thing. He is the only player in the men’s draw who has not dropped a set through four rounds. You just cannot make him uncomfortable. Thiem absolutely slaughters his groundstrokes, but if he loiters in his usual spot 15 feet behind the baseline, he’s not hitting through Medvedev and his Waluigi range. They play each other in the semifinals, unfortunately. As long as they don’t run each other all the way into the ground, whoever makes the final is your 2020 champion. You’re welcome!
Ranking the Quarterfinalists -- Women’s Draw
8. Shelby Rogers
The American veteran fought off a match point to defeat six-seeded Petra Kvitova in the fourth round, and she also upended 11-seed Elena Rybakina in the second-round. So maybe beating Naomi Osaka in the quarters wouldn’t be such a stretch. And yet -- it feels like a stretch. As long as Osaka’s hammy holds up, Shelby’s run ends here.
7. Tsvetana Pironkova
Complacency is never good on the tennis court, especially when your opponent is chasing history. Pironkova, one of three moms in the U.S. Open quarters, is playing in her first tournament since the 2017 Wimbledon Championships after taking parental leave. This is her best result in 12 U.S. Open appearances. The “happy-to-be-here” vibes abound. She plays Serena Williams in the quarters. Serena hasn’t been content with a QF appearance since the Clinton administration.
6. Yulia Putintseva (23)
5. Jennifer Brady (28)
Jennifer Brady won her first WTA title at the Lexington Top Seed Open three weeks ago. She lost in the first round at the Western & Southern Open, but she hasn’t dropped a set in her U.S. Open campaign yet. She faces Putintseva in the quarters, the winner of which will likely play Osaka in the semis.
4. Elise Mertens (16)
3. Victoria Azarenka
This promises to be the signature match of the women’s quarters. Mertens is one of only two women (with Brady) who have yet to drop a set in the U.S. Open, and she just utterly demolished Sofia Kenin in the fourth round. But Azarenka has won nine straight matches in New York and has broken her opponents on 58% of her return games. Hard to win matches when you can’t hold serve! Azarenka has rediscovered her world No.1 form, and she’s a threat to win this whole thing, mark my words. MARK THEM!
2. Naomi Osaka (4)
Osaka has battled her form so far in the tournament, but she has found a way to win. Like Azarenka, she has also not lost a match in New York City, if you disregard her withdrawing from the Western & Southern Open championship match. She has a losing record against Rogers, her QF opponent, but hasn’t played her since 2017. She won her most recent meetings against both Putintseva and Brady, whom she would face in the semis. She looked great in a straight-sets 4R win against Kontaveit.
1. Serena Williams (3)
Serena is 4-0 against Pironkova, her QF opponent. She is 18-4 against Azarenka and 1-0 against Mertens, her two potential semifinal opponents. She looked excellent in her 4R match against Sakkari, and her 24th grand slam title would tie Margaret Court for the most grand slam titles in tennis history (she already owns the record for most slam titles in the Open Era). This feels like her time (again)!
TUNES TUNES TUNES
Another Canadian treasure.