REPORT: Rafa to Sleeve in Melbourne
by @ratloff
Last month, Nike announced that Rafael Nadal will debut a new fit in Melbourne, and for the first time since 2017, the Spanish icon will wear sleeves in Melbourne. At first blush, this seemed like unwelcome news –– Rafael’s big nude arms being Good for the Game and all –– but then we dug into Rafa’s history at the Australian Open. And given that he is likely the only man standing in the way of a 1,000th Australian Open title for the Dreaded Novak, the return of the sleeves may be just what the doctor ordered, mate!
2007 Australian Open: vintage sleeveless.
The Australian Open has always been Nadal’s toughest venue, for whatever reason. Rafa’s first and only Aussie title was in 2009, when he outlasted Federer in a 4.5-hour five-setter that you might remember as that time he made Roger very publicly cry. The 2009 Aussie Open was also, importantly, the first time Rafa wore sleeves in a slam. (Note: we’re excluding 2003 and 2004 slam appearances in this analysis because Rafa was very young then and because they are inconvenient for purposes of this post.)
2009: championship drip.
Undoubtedly pleased with the results, Rafa proceeded to wear sleeves in Melbourne for the next eight years, through the 2017 Australian Open final, where he once again faced Federer in a classic that went the distance and culminated in Swiss tears. But these were a different sort of tears, friends. The tears of a man who comes home from a long journey that almost bested him. Happy tears. Roger had gotten the better of Rafa in a grand slam match for the first time since the 2007 Wimbledon final.
When Roger returned to Melbourne to defend his title in 2018, Rafa was waiting for him. And he brought some old friends: his arms.
2018: return of the cutoff (possible midlife crisis).
Yet Rafa’s return to the signature sleeveless look of his early prime was not enough to deliver the goods in 2018, when an injury forced him to WD in the quarters. He performed without sleeves in 2019 and again in 2020, again to no avail (straight-set loss to Djokovic in the 2019 championship; bounced by Thiem in the quarters last year). For all their aesthetic appeal and certifiable hugeness, the arms, it seems, are just not enough to change the narrative at Nadal’s worst slam event.
In fact, if you look at Rafa’s performance at the Australian Open as a function of the kind of shirt he was wearing, which is a smart thing to do, there is only one clear recipe for success: wearing sleeves after a long spell of not wearing sleeves, as he did on his way to the 2009 championship. Rafa has not been wearing sleeves, but this year? This year, he will be wearing sleeves. We have no choice but to conclude that he will win the 2021 Australian Open.
Rafa’s outfit will also include a hat, which is unusual for him, but very nice. Hats are good!